Urban Flood Damage and Greenhouse Scenarios - The Implications for Policy: An Example from Australia

Urban flooding is often used as an illustration of the potentially adverse effects of greenhouse-induced climate change on extreme events. There is however, a paucity of studies that convert climate scenarios into changes in flood damage. This account summarises the use of modelling techniques, for three flood prone urban catchments in south eastern Australia, to assess changes to urban flood losses for the 'most wet' and 'most dry' scenarios for the year 2070. The most wet scenario indicates that annual average flood damage could increase within the range of 2.5 to 10 times, under the most dry scenario flood regimes would be similar to those experienced at present. The socio-economic scenarios based on the changes to flood losses are used to consider policy responses. It is unlikely that many local government authorities will respond because of lack of interest and because of major changes to the climate scenarios proposed over the last decade. Any response is likely to be incremental and accord with the 'no regrets' and the precautionary principle'.     

Superovulation fails to increase human blastocyst yield after uterine lavage

Uterine lavage affords the potential for non-invasive human blastocyst recovery, with obvious potential for preimplantation genetic diagnosis. In an effort to duplicate in women the multiple blastocyst recovery per cycle that can be achieved in several other species, we initiated a programme in which fertile women underwent superovulation, followed by lavage and embryo collection. We superovulated 15 fertile women, aged 21–40, in 29 cycles using one of four regimens. Insemination was by either intercourse or artificial intracervical donor insemination with cryopreserved sperm from men of proven fertility. In 28 of 29 cycles, the uterus was lavaged daily for 1, 2, or 3 days between 5 and 10 days after human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) administration or luteinizing hormone (LH) surge. Almost total fluid volume was recovered in every lavage. There were no retained pregnancies and no complications. Surprisingly, only two morulae, one blastocyst, and four unfertilized ova were recovered. Thus, alterations in ovulation induction, insemination timing, or lavage techniques must be contemplated in order to increase the blastocyst yield and thus fulfil the potential of uterine lavage for preimplantation diagnosis.     

Early amniocentesis at 11–14 weeks' gestation for the diagnosis of fetal chromosomal abnormality—a clinical evaluation

Early arnniocentesis between 11 and 14 weeks' gestation was offered to 110 women at risk of a chromosomally abnormal fetus due to maternal age. Four were found to be unsuitable for the procedure, and 106 early amniocenteses were performed. In 102 cases, clear amniotic fluid was obtained with a single tap. There were two dry taps and two bloodstained tapis; sampling was repeated in three of these cases before 15 weeks. In the fourth case, placental biopsy was performed at 16 weeks. Thus, we were able to obtain a satisfactory sample in all but three cases(2.8 percent). Karyotyping of cells harvested from the early amniotic fluid samples was successful in all the 105 cases. Cell culture from the initial samples revealed a normal karyotype in 99 cases, two balanced translocations, two tetraploid karyotypes, and two cases of pseudomosaicism. Of the 105 pregnancies successfully sampled, there have been two losses to date (1–8 per cent). Two further patients presented with premature rupture of membranes, both pregnancies having successful outcomes. Sixty-two babies have delivered to date, with four congenital anomalies. There were no respiratory problems. Twenty-nine pregnancies are continuing without known complications, and details are not yet available on the remaining 12. The results indicate that early arnniocentesis may replace the traditional test at 15–17 weeks.     

Prenatal diagnosis for dystrophia myotonica using the polymerase chain reaction

The polymerase chain reaction has been used to detect an abundant class of short repeat DNA families of the form (dC-dA)n.(dG-dT)n, known as microsatellites. These units are found throughout the human genome and have been characterized for several loci including APOC2 on chromosome 19ql2-ql3.2. The locus APOC2 is linked to the gene for dystrophia myotonica and a microsatellite within this locus was used to derive polymorphisms in a family to predict the inheritance of the disease. Chorionic villus sampling (CVS) was performed at 151/2 weeks' gestation. Following DNA extraction from the CVS material and parental blood samples, microsatellite analysis was carried out by the polymerase chain reaction.     

Prenatal diagnosis and post-mortem study of a fetus with mosaic trisomy 14 due to a dic(14)(p11)

Amniocentesis at 17 weeks' gestation revealed a mosaic karyotype—46,XX/46,XX, — 14,+dic(14)(p11). No abnormalities were detected on ultrasound. Growth and placentation were normal. The fetus was examined after termination of pregnancy and micrognathia and pulmonary hyperlobation were the only abnormalities detected. Several tissues were set up for cytogenetics, including fetal skin, kidney, ovary, and placenta. The diagnosis was confirmed by these studies. The level of mosaicism varied between tissues, with the trisomy 14 cell line highest in amniotic fluid.     

Chorionic villus sampling—short-term versus long-term culture in a subtle 2; 18 translocation

Prenatal diagnosis on chorionic villous tissue was performed for a woman with the karyotype 46,XX,t(2;18)(q32;q12)—a subtle ‘difficult’ translocation. The case illustrates the necessity of good quality cytogenetics for accurate prenatal diagnosis. For chorionic villi this can be obtained only with long-term culture.     

Effects of population density and cadmium toxicity on growth and survival of blowflies

The blowfly Lucilia sericata has been reared on artificial diets containing from 0 to 200 mg Cd kg(-1) at population densities ranging from 8 larvae per 4-g diet to 8 larvae per 32-g diet. Peak larval weight, development period, pupal weight, adult-emergence weight, and fecundity were measured. Larvae of blowflies respond to food deprivation by a reduction in larval weight and subsequent pupal and adult size. Contaminating the food supply with cadmium produced similar additive effects, reduced the growth rate, and increased the age of pupation. The results are of importance in determining the effects of environmental pollutants on population dynamics.     

Congestion and participation in outdoor recreation: A household production function approach

This paper examines the effects of congestion on recreational behavior within a household production model of consumer behavior. We assume that congestion affects the household's ability to produce constant quality recreational service flows and derive a reduced-form model for participation decisions in remote and developed camping. Empirical estimates of the effects of a congestion measure on the conditional probability of participation as well as on the level of participation are estimated for each activity by the type of trip using information from the 1972 National Recreation Survey. The findings suggest that congestion was most likely to affect the decision to participate and not the level once that decision had been made. While differences in these effects were observed across the activities studied, it is not clear how they should be interpreted since our congestion measure was a proxy variable likely to perform better for remote camping than developed camping.